Friday, September 11, 2015

The myth that is the Knowledge Economy

Many, including myself, argue that we're living in a knowledge economy. But we're not. 
At least: not yet.

There is no question that knowledge is or has become a major driver for our economy: many business models are clearly based on knowledge, rather than for instance the exploration of raw materials or the production of goods out of such raw materials. Still, even in those latter examples knowledge cannot be taken out of the equation.  One can argue - but this is not the purpose of the present discourse - that knowledge has always been, since  the beginning of commerce, a key component in any successful and sustainable business model: knowledge to grow crops or raise cattle, knowledge to drill for oil or mine for ore, knowledge to design goods or adverts aimed at specific market segments, knowledge to convince customers to buy your goods or services.

But today perhaps more that any ever before, knowledge can be the sole driver of a business activity: today's social media and tsunami of apps for our mobile communication devices exemplify our ability to turn streams of information into something valuable for hundreds of millions of people.

Yet therein lies the conundrum: in spite of generating value for so many, the current business models manage to capture but a fraction of that value. The reality is that most social media are used for free by a majority of its members; that the only value captured is through revenues generated from selling information regarding social media users (to potential advertisers or marketing agencies tracking consumer preferences, etc.). This has no relation to ...

how a knowledge economy actually works!

Since 'knowledge is in the eye of the beholder" - and this depends on the context of the beholder -  the value of knowledge cannot be determined removed from the context in which it is to be used. In fact, if and as long as knowledge remains idle, unused, its value is effectively nil!
Moreover, since knowledge is an intangible and as such not bounded by scarcity (in the way that tangibles are), knowledge cannot be consumed but instead may be used again and again, in many different contexts, until such time it has lost its relevance and/or is superseded by other knowledge. One can even say that the more one uses specific knowledge, the more it becomes valuable - which stands in sharp contrast to how the value of tangibles depreciates with usage!
As a consequence the value of knowledge cannot be determined at the time it is shared on a marketplace but only as and when it is used - every time it is used, in whichever context. And so, payment for sharing one's knowledge should be made at the time of use, not of exchange.
Current information and communication technologies have reached a point of maturity and cost, where it becomes possible and practical to log and keep track of who shares what knowledge, with whom, and when and how it is used. That makes for a way to ensure payment reaches those that shared their knowledge with others, in proportion to the value it eventually creates. In effect, the sharing of knowledge earns a share of any and all future value it helps create, an option if you will on future revenues. (And these options may be traded in their own right, but more on that later).

Consider how this could work in the world of consulting or training, both knowledge-based businesses by excellence: Currently they sell knowledge (in the form of advice or presentations and exercises) but only charge for the time spent in sharing that knowledge. That they may charge different rates for their time has no direct bearing on the value that their knowledge holds for the receiving parties. Nor do the receiving parties have the possibility to resell or indeed return what they bought in case it does not meet their purpose. What should happen instead, is that consultants and trainers ought not only sell their time - indeed a scarce resource - but also, and separately, their knowledge.  If the knowledge thus shared fails to yield added value to the client, no additional payment should be due; conversely, if added value is indeed realised, whether in terms of additional revenues, higher margins, higher productivity, cost savings, or other means, then the provider(s) of that knowledge should get a proportional and thus fair reward.

What would remain to be negotiated is of course the size of that proportional reward, i.e. the percentage of added value realised.

Knowledge Market Risks

It is important in this discussion to consider how risk is distributed among both parties in an exchange of knowledge: Information asymmetry makes that at the time of the exchange  the receiving party has little or no idea of how valuable that knowledge will eventually be. This puts downward pressure on what the receiving party should be willing to pay for that knowledge at the time of the exchange. In contrast, the selling party has no way to demonstrate or prove the true value of the knowledge in the context of the receiving party, short of already making that knowledge available. At the time of the exchange of knowledge the risks are therefore significant for both parties: the buyer bears the risk of paying for "a cat in a bag" with uncertain benefits, whereas the seller runs the risk of not getting a fair reward for all future value his/her knowledge helps generate (including, by the way, that the buyer may cut short the period over which future benefits are taken into consideration for the purpose of determining what for them is fair payment).


If instead payment for knowledge is made contingent on future benefits as and when those are realised, then effectively the risk on the shoulders of the buyer (that the knowledge bought may not bring added value) have all but disappeared, and will be limited to the payment of the consultant's or trainer's time. Conversely, the risk on the seller is limited to the buyer not actively putting the knowledge to work and therefore realising much fewer benefits than perhaps anticipated; but the upside is unlimited and at any rate the time spent will be paid for.   

Watch this space ...

A project is currently under way, supported by the European Commission's Horizon 2020 programme, to create a market for knowledge, where knowledge can be shared but paid for as and when it is used. In essence, create what Performance Rights Organisations do in the entertainment sector: collect royalties from users of knowledge and distribute these to its authors.

Interested? Contact me on philippe.leliaert@telenet.be.